Indian stock market - Swing Trading

The recent mayhem in the global equity market is mostly attributed to corono virus .  Nifty corrected about 25% with a massive sell off in few trading sessions . Many financial listed firms especially banks may see a further hit in their stock prices because the business cycle may take a standstill . The fall of nifty   from about 12200 to 8900 is quite steep in the last few years . The obvious comparison of these steep fall would be the year 2008. But the crash of 2008 and that of 2020 are entirely different . 2008 was all about banks , funding and very concentrated risks . On the other hand , the crash of 2020 is all sudden resulting in halt of a number of businesses . Also there was a severe liquidity crisis back in 2008 . But during this crisis , the reverse holds true. There is ample of liquidity in the current scenario . Recently , fed announced to cut the interest rates to zero in the usa. The global stock market would not recover easily . The aviation industry is ...

Dhfl , a quality stock with good track record  delivered phenomenal returns from 2016 to Aug. 2018. But things changed thereafter . the month of September , 2018 changed things upside down . during this month , the scrip opened at 669 , made high of 691 , then started crashing down , made a low of 252 and closed at 274 . all this happed in a time span of one month . With the benefit of hindsight , one lesson from this episode is to have a pre determined exit level. Before entering a trade for whatever timeframe ( be it one day or 10 years ) , its important to have exit levels , analysis of risk . etc . if these things are thought beforehand , one can let the profits run , with less bothering. Many traders/investors think that , the falling stock will rebound from these levels but 95% or more of the time , the stock price does not . again they think , this time it will rebound from such levels  , but that too doesn't happen . this fantasy goes on , until their loss becomes ve...

The stock recorded an all time high of 600 in late 2018. After that it crashed down due to some negative news . as of may 31 , the scrip trades at 77 i.e. stock depreciated about 87% , making it one of the worst performing stock. However , Pc jewellers delivered a return of around 100% in April , 2019 ( movement from 80 to 163 ) but again depreciated in may and currently trades at 77 . for some time , its likely to stay in the range of 40 - 80 with some random unsustainable spikes. Q ) Pc jewellers by 2020 ? Most probably in the range of 40-80 , unless major restructuring . Q ) How will it again reach its all time high ? The stock should rise gradually till the levels of around 250 as it did in 2014 - 16 . major resistance will be in the range of 250 - 280. Once it crosses this range with good momentum , the next stop perhaps may be the all time high . but this journey might take about 5-8 years . Q ) Entry signal i...

One of the favourite stock of d-street in 2017 and 2018 was HEG. this stock zoomed 1127% in 2017 . the company is a graphite electrode manufacturer . no matter , which news plays out , price factors out everything. Hence the saying reasons can wait , price wont . If one analyses , the price history of HEG from 2009 to 2019 . for about 8 years , the stock from 2009 to early 2017 , the stock price was in the range of rs 420 to rs. 110. The stock started its upward movement from mid 2017 and reached its zenith in the month of October 2018 to rs. 4955 . the bulls had a fantastic ride , only to dump latter ( probably ) . As of may 31 , the stock closed at 1730. The take , is how to ride this type of stocks , what are the risks , what would be suitable entry and exit levels , how to find these stocks . with the benefit of hindsight and other stock analysis ; these are some inferences - How to find these stocks First characteristic is that , these stock remain in a range for a...

For every trader/investor in the stock market , the first challenge is to identify the entry and exit levels, with a proper analysis of risk. 2nd challenge is executing the decisions , without being influenced by emotions while on trading screen , others opinions etc. Its true that buy right & sit tight approach is perfect . however , when one uses support and resistance for entry or exit , probability of higher returns become more pronounced. Timing is very important in stock market . there are many approaches to identify support and resistance based on technicals and others . two important approach to identify SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE are based on ma ( moving average ) and price action. Each have their own pros and cons. 1. Moving average Pros -    mostly ma levels are obeyed by non volatile stocks under normal conditions Cons - not applicable in volatile stocks illustrations - Bajfinance for period 2017 to may 2019 The 50 ma...

The previous calendar year of 2018 was too volatile . nifty began with the level of 10531 and made a high of 11760 , but this was unsustainable and selling pressure brought the index down to the level of 10862 by the end of 2018. The annual return on the index was 3.2% ( approx ) i.e. about 350 points . major stock market related events of 2018 were - pnb scam , ilfs default and trade tensions. The calendar year 2019 started with levels around 10880 and nifty is currently trading at 11950 as of may 30 , 2019 . which is gain of about 1050 points . is there any further room for extra stretch ? The answer as obv ious , depends on many factors . the return of bjp government in centre is a major event of 2019 . Reasons to be bullish - earning growth , good Q1 result this fiscal , good monsoon Reasons to be bearish - slowdown in global economy , high valuation of nifty 50 firms overall , pessimistic forecast from IMF on overall economy of the world , volatility Overall If al...